A chilling silence has descended upon Iran, as over 90 million citizens remain disconnected from the world, trapped in a week-long internet blackout. This drastic measure, imposed by the Iranian authorities, has coincided with the largest anti-government protests the country has witnessed in recent years.
In a recent statement, US President Donald Trump claimed that the violence has 'stopped' or is 'stopping', citing 'important sources' within the Islamic Republic. However, human rights groups paint a different picture. HRANA, a US-based rights group, has confirmed the deaths of 2,615 individuals and the detention of 18,470 since the protests began last month.
Agnès Callamard, head of Amnesty International, described the situation as unprecedented, even by the Iranian authorities' own standards. She stated, "As large sectors of Iranian society took to the streets, braving bullets, Iran's Supreme Leader and security forces unleashed their deadliest crackdown yet."
But here's where it gets controversial... Trump's comments about the 'stopping' of killings and the absence of execution plans seem to contradict reports from the BBC and Hengaw, a human rights group, which state that 26-year-old Erfan Soltani, one of those detained, was scheduled for execution on Wednesday. Hengaw reported that the family was granted a brief final visit before the execution.
Trump's previous declarations, promising to 'rescue' protesters and warning of severe consequences for the Iranian regime, have now shifted to a more subdued tone. His recent statements could be interpreted as a sign that the US is not actively pursuing military intervention, at least not immediately.
HRANA's update on Wednesday noted the absence of verifiable reports of new street protests in Iran. This could indicate a decline in visible demonstrations or be a direct result of the severe communication restrictions. NetBlocks, an internet watchdog, confirmed that Iran's near-total communications blackout has persisted for seven days.
Alam Saleh, from the Australian National University's Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, shared that several sources inside Iran have reported a quieter situation. "They all agree it's calming down. Nothing much is happening on the streets anymore, but the security forces are still everywhere," Saleh said.
Dr. Saleh believes Trump's declaration of a 'calmed' situation in Iran is motivated by a desire to avoid imminent military action. He previously warned Tehran of 'strong options' regarding US military intervention.
However, regional powers in the Middle East, even Iran's adversaries, oppose US military action against Iran, fearing it would destabilize the entire region. Dr. Saleh added, "[Trump] knows that a war with Iran won't be short or easy."
US or Israeli military strikes against Iran could also play into the regime's narrative, portraying protesters as agents 'supported, guided, and organized by foreign actors.'
The communications blackout has made it difficult to verify information from within Iran. Few videos have emerged on social media, and the regime's desire to hide atrocities seems to be a primary motivator for the blackout.
Alp Toker, director of NetBlocks, described the blackout as one of the longest NetBlocks has recorded. "This total shutdown is very costly for the regime and the economy. The only reason authorities resort to this is to conceal killings and repress restive cities and regions. It's to prevent justice and the recording of these killings as much as it is to quiet the situation," he said.
Iranian authorities have also cut conventional phone lines, leaving diaspora Iranians desperate for information.
Sahar Gholizadeh, a Melbourne-based Iranian community leader, said, "History will remember who spoke when an entire nation was pushed into darkness." Gholizadeh confirmed that her immediate family was still alive but that her cousin had been detained by security forces.
Some Iranians have managed to access satellite internet via Starlink, and those near borders can sometimes get mobile reception from neighboring countries, allowing for sporadic updates to reach the outside world.
Many diaspora Iranians advocate for the replacement of the Islamic Republic with an interim government led by Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of the Shah of Iran, who was deposed in the 1979 revolution. Supporters argue that Pahlavi could lead a transition to secular democracy in Iran.
"There is no other alternative. It has to be foreign interference," said Gholizadeh, a health worker and president of the Australian Iranian Society of Victoria.
An Iranian-Australian based in Brisbane, who requested anonymity, expressed a similar sentiment, seeing US military action as the only solution despite their reservations about foreign intervention.
While most Iranians are disenchanted with the Islamic Republic, many remain fearful of the potential consequences of US military action, according to Dr. Saleh. He emphasized, "Bombing does not lead to instant peace and prosperity."
The situation in Iran remains complex and tense, with differing perspectives on the best course of action. What do you think? Should the international community intervene, or is there another path to peace and democracy in Iran? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
