AFL Team Tips: Round 1 Predictions and Analysis (2026)

The Australian Football League (AFL) is set for an exciting 2026 season, with teams gearing up for the opening round. As the competition heats up, coaches and selectors face crucial decisions, especially with injuries and suspensions impacting their lineups. Here's a deep dive into the selection dilemmas and key matches to watch.

Brisbane's Four-Fold Selection Dilemma

Brisbane faces a challenging task as they prepare for their third-straight premiership. The Lions have been dealt several selection curveballs just one week into their pursuit. With a handful of fitness tests determining the strength of their side, Brisbane must navigate a tricky path. The focus is on veteran defender Nick Vlastuin, who is a test ahead of Richmond's season opener against Carlton. Vlastuin's recovery from a broken ankle has led to some niggles, but the club remains optimistic. Key defender Noah Balta is expected to play after overcoming a minor hamstring worry, while Mykelti Lefau, who is serving a suspension, won't be available until Round 2.

Carlton's Fitness Tests and Richmond's Selection Watch

Meanwhile, Carlton is set to face Richmond at Princes Park, with a few fitness tests determining the strength of their side. Dashing defender Adam Saad is expected to miss the blockbuster match with a low-end hamstring strain, finishing with just 64% game time in their opening-round loss to Sydney. The return of Nick Haynes from an ankle injury is a boost, though he remains an outside chance to come straight back. Francis Evans, who is in form, is also considered unlikely but not improbable to be parachuted into the starting 23.

Essendon's Injury Concerns and Hawthorn's Midfield Focus

Essendon, on the other hand, faces injury concerns as they prepare to take on Hawthorn. Nick Bryan (ACL) and Will Setterfield (foot) are still a while away from returning to senior level, while Jordan Ridley is on a month-long rehab for a calf injury. Second-year South Australian Angus Clarke is also set to miss an extended period with a syndesmosis injury. Hawthorn, meanwhile, has a midfield focus, with the return of Cam Mackenzie from concussion providing a boost. Finn Maginness, who was quiet in their loss to GWS, may make room for Mackenzie's return.

Western Bulldogs' Concussion Protocols and GWS Giants' Stunning Win

The Western Bulldogs, fresh off an epic win over the reigning premiers, face GWS Giants. Small forward Lachie McNeil looks like the most obvious like-for-like replacement for Artie Jones, who is in concussion protocols. Ryley Sanders is a chance to exit concussion protocols and slot back into the best 23, while key defender Ryan Gardner remains a possibility to be available from a groin complaint. GWS, on the other hand, celebrated an absolutely stunning win, silencing critics who wrote them off due to February's injury crisis. Coach Adam Kingsley is unlikely to make many changes, with the final call dependent on the fitness of Toby Bedford, Toby McMullin, and Leek Aleer.

Geelong Cats' Return to Form and Fremantle's Injury List

Geelong Cats, led by Chris Scott, aim to put their Gold Coast nightmare behind them. The return of Jeremy Cameron (quad) and captain Patrick Dangerfield (calf) will be a significant boost. Bailey Smith and Gryan Miers, who were under an injury cloud, will also benefit from a game under their belts. Fremantle, meanwhile, is the only club without an official injury list, despite having a few concerns. Captain Alex Pearce and defender Brennan Cox (both calf) are expected to be available for their season opener, while Sam Switkowski (concussion) and Karl Worner (knee soreness) are also likely to be available.

Sydney Swans' Lineup and Brisbane Lions' Defensive Outs

Sydney Swans, fresh off a comprehensive win over Carlton, are set to take on Brisbane Lions. There's not much change expected in Sydney's lineup, with potentially a watch on Angus Sheldrick, who played just over half the game against Carlton. Brisbane, on the other hand, could be without four Opening Round starters for their blockbuster bout with Sydney. Hugh McCluggage will miss with a calf issue, while Harris Andrews, Darcy Gardiner, and Zac Bailey were all dealt suspensions from the Bulldogs loss.

Collingwood's Height Advantage and Adelaide Crows' Injury Concerns

Collingwood, with their height advantage, faces Adelaide Crows. Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe (both calf) could return against the Crows, with Moore more likely. If Moore is deemed fit, one of Wil Parker, Ed Allan, or Roan Steele could be vulnerable at selection. Adelaide, meanwhile, has a few injuries to monitor, with midfielder James Peatling (hamstring) and defender Mitch Hinge (hip) needing to prove their fitness. James Borlase and Mitch Marsh appear on the outer looking in.

North Melbourne's Top Pick and Port Adelaide's Club Debuts

North Melbourne, led by coach Brad Scott, looks set to unveil top pick Lachy Dovaston against Port Adelaide. Dovaston, an impressive first preseason, and SSP signing Tom Blamires will also be in the frame. Port Adelaide, on the other hand, has a few club debuts on the table. Former Giant Jacob Wehr and old Blue Corey Durdin look likely to play their first game since their arrival, while mature-age rookie selection Jack Watkins remains in the frame.

Melbourne's Left-of-Centre Injury and St Kilda's Concussion Casualty

Melbourne, with a left-of-centre injury to monitor, faces St Kilda. Bayley Fritsch, who required surgery on an infected dog bite, is racing the clock to prove his fitness. St Kilda, meanwhile, has a concussion casualty in Rowan Marshall, who sustained a concussion in their loss to Collingwood. Isaac Keeler shapes as the like-for-like replacement if Ross Lyon wants to stay tall against Melbourne and Max Gawn.

Gold Coast Suns' Strong Start and West Coast Eagles' Top Draftees

Gold Coast Suns, fresh off a strong start to their 2026 campaign, host West Coast Eagles. Young key forward Jed Walter is now available after serving his suspension, while fellow forward Jamarra Ugle-Hagan kicked six goals in the VFL side's pre-season match. West Coast, on the other hand, has top draftees Willem Duursma and Cooper Duff-Tytler set to make their AFL debuts. Additionally, Josh Lindsay, who had 22 disposals in their pre-season loss, could also lock up a spot in Andrew McQualter's side.

As the AFL season unfolds, these selection dilemmas and key matches will shape the competition. Coaches and selectors must navigate injuries, suspensions, and form to build competitive sides. With the season set to begin, the excitement and anticipation are palpable, and the drama is sure to unfold as teams strive for premiership glory.

AFL Team Tips: Round 1 Predictions and Analysis (2026)
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